New Gartner research reveals 40% of consumers anticipate reduced holiday discounts—an eight-point increase from 2024—according to the comprehensive “Holiday Advertising and Consumer Trends Marketing Must Address” report. This expectation aligns with economic realities as retailers face supply chain pressures, tariff concerns, and margin compression that limit their ability to offer traditional deep discounts.
The research, surveying 367 consumers between August 4-11, reveals that 75% of holiday shoppers expect to pay higher prices overall, driven by persistent inflation and anticipated trade policy impacts. Brad Jashinsky, Director Analyst at Gartner, emphasizes the critical marketing pivot required: “Consumers are expecting to pay more. They’re expecting to see fewer discounts. So as a marketer, it’s really about how consumers are feeling. How can you showcase value at every touch point and in every message?”
Key findings that reshape holiday marketing strategy:
- Brand-specific websites have lost substantial ground, dropping from 61% preference in 2023 to just 40% in 2025—a 21-point decline
- 43% of consumers now plan to use mass retail apps for purchases, with only 12% preferring brand-specific apps
- 32% of consumers are planning to start shopping between July and October, requiring earlier campaign timing
- During Amazon’s Prime Day events, average discounts decreased by approximately 3 percentage points despite increased product participation
- 69% of consumers believe U.S. trade policies will make their holiday shopping more expensive this year
The expectation of fewer discounts fundamentally alters holiday marketing strategy from discount competition to value communication, requiring marketers to shift from broad promotional campaigns to personalized, loyalty-driven approaches.